A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
